Applying foresight and scenario building on multilateralism and the geopolitical agency of Africa

Programme Description

In November 2024, the EUI’s Young African Leaders Programme (YALP) and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) organise an executive training course in Pretoria, South Africa, focusing skill development on foresight and scenario-building in light of Africa’s geopolitical agency.

The training will take place in person at the Institute for Security Studies’ Meeting Hall in Pretoria, South Africa, on 13 November 2024.

The geostrategic significance of Africa is becoming increasingly evident as major and regional powers compete for influence in the region. Over the past few years, Africa has witnessed a flurry of high-level official visits, joint summits, and strategies on and with Africa from great and middle powers. The recent inclusion of the African Union in the G-20, the expansion of BRICS, including Ethiopia, Egypt, in addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Argentina, along with the recent Non-Aligned Movement summit in Uganda, provide additional perspectives for grasping the evolving global geopolitics. Moreover, amid intensifying great power competition, regional powers such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are forging new alliances and establishing their own geopolitical spheres of influence in Africa. These influences extend across Africa, reaching beyond the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to connect the Middle East with North Africa, the Horn of Africa, and the Sahel. In addition, the ongoing war in Gaza has disrupted maritime safety and shipping routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, underscoring the interconnected nature of security in the Middle East and Africa.

In light of the aforementioned global, regional, and national events, and Africa's and Europe's commitment to “promote effective multilateralism within the rules-based international order with the UN at its core”, the objectives of this training are threefold:

• First, to critically reflect on the ongoing and emerging geopolitical trends, particularly the role of Middle powers in Africa, supported by foresight exercises;
• Second, to examine the implications of the new developments on Africa's geopolitical importance and its relationship with Europe and the rest of the world, and to explore policy options for promoting and consolidating Africa's agency;
• Third, to explore policy options for promoting and develop skills of young leaders and emerging researchers and engage YALP Alumni on foresight and scenario building in geopolitics and Africa's agency.

Working together in an interactive setting, participants will examine the key bilateral, multilateral, and interregional frames of cooperation, with a focus on transnational decision-making processes and implementation in the African continent.

At the conclusion of the executive training, the participants will receive a certificate issued jointly by the European University Institute and the Institute for Security Studies.

 

Learning methods

• Interactive and skill development sessions led by established practitioners and academics;
• Combining theoretical approaches with policy-oriented expertise;
• A peer-learning environment with professionals from various backgrounds, roles, and levels of seniority.
  
  

Learning outcomes

By the end of the programme, participants will be able to:

• Develop a comprehensive understanding of contemporary debates surrounding the geopolitical competition between great powers and regional actors;
• Comprehend the dynamics of the role played by global strategic actors particularly middle powers and their interests in Africa;
• Discern the interests of global and middle powers and explore how the international order impacts Africa. Participants will be able to identify and analyse the interests of major global and regional powers (e.g., China, the United States, Russia, BRICS Plus, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey) in Africa and understand how these interests influence Africa's development and security dynamics;
• Comprehend the roles of Africa, the African Union, and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) within the international order;
• Demonstrate skills in foresight and scenario building. Participants will gain the practical ability to use foresight and scenario-building techniques to analyse potential future developments in Africa's geopolitical landscape, aiding in informed decision-making;
• Develop policy options on how Africa should engage in the heightened geopolitical competition between great powers and regional actors. By the end of the training, participants should be capable of formulating well-reasoned policy options and recommendations for Africa to navigate and engage effectively in the intensified geopolitical competition;
• Develop skills in group discussion and presentation skills on foresight. Participants will enhance their group discussion and presentation skills, particularly in the context of foresight exercises, allowing them to effectively communicate and collaborate with others when discussing and presenting strategic scenarios and policy options.