Information and Irregular Migration

Organised by

• Department of Economics
• Department of History
• Department of Law
• Max Weber Programme for Postdoctoral Studies
• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
• Department of Political and Social Sciences
• Florence School of Transnational Governance
• Technological Change and Society
• Tech

Policy projections and recent research suggest that large numbers of irregular migrants from sub-Saharan Africa will continue to attempt to make their way to Europe over the next few decades. In response, European countries have made and continue to make significant investments in information campaigns designed to discourage irregular African migration. These campaigns are frequently accompanied by evaluations of some sort but, to our knowledge, none have involved a well-powered randomised controlled trial with a representative sample and actual migration as an outcome. We report results from such a field experiment that we implemented in 2020 and 2021 with 3200 households in Edo and Delta states in Nigeria, in which treated households received detailed, accurate information about features of the journey along the Mediterranean route. We estimate effects of this information on beliefs about migration-related risks, interest in attempting irregular migration, and actual migration from treated households, using data collected approximately six to twelve months after treatment. We find that potential migrants in this context are ex ante better informed about destination contexts than European information campaigns assume, but are surprisingly poorly informed about key aspects of the migration journey itself. Preliminary experimental results identify small but significant shifts in beliefs about migration-related risks, and in personal interest in attempting the journey.

Links:

• CIVICA data science seminars