A reappraisal of determinants of EU attachment after the invasion of Ukraine

Organised by

• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
• EGPP: European Governance and Politics Programme

This paper explores the association between individual perceptions of the implications of EU membership for the national economy, culture, and security, and attachment to the EU in the post-Ukraine invasion context. In addition, the paper reports the results of a survey experiment measuring the effect of frames highlighting positive and negative economic, cultural, and security implications of EU membership on average EU attachment. Drawing on original large-N survey data collected in 16 EU member states in 2022, the author finds that attitudes towards the EU are more strongly predicted by expectations of economic prosperity derived from EU membership than by identity or national security concerns. While frames depicting advantages of EU membership (e.g., free movement, cultural diversity, and increased security against foreign conflicts) generate a positive effect on levels of EU attachment, frames highlighting negative consequences do not generate a negative effect. This suggests that more ambitious EU economic redistribution instruments, coupled with more effective domestic political communication highlighting advantages of EU policy, may promote the consolidation of attachment to the EU. The potential for populist activation of anti-EU opposition by framing it in a negative light appears more limited than initially anticipated.