Ne parlons pas de l'Affair Dreyfus

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• Department of Political and Social Sciences

Political actors often resort to riots to advance their objectives. A key question is when they are effective and under which conditions. While most recent literature has focused on contemporary left-wing riots, we contribute to this body of knowledge by looking at right-wing riots in late 19th century France. We use a combination of historical municipal-level electoral data and newly collected information on antisemitic riots in early 1898, which followed the publication of Emile Zola’s J’accuse in the context of the Dreyfus Affair. Using a difference in-differences design – comparing municipalities where riots occurred to those that were not affected by the riots – we show that riots caused an increase of about 5% in the share of votes in the 1898 elections for extreme right-wing candidates at the expense of centre-right candidates. These results are consistent to different specifications and robustness tests. The increase in votes for the radical right are partially driven by an increase in turnout, but not by anti-incumbent voting, which suggests that the riots caused a shift in political opinions amongst right-leaning voters. The results of this study contribute valuable insights into understanding the consequences of political violence, suggesting that riots can contributed to the mobilisation of the radical right, and that this effect already existed in the early years of democratic elections.

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