The thesis examines governance in Syria’s Idlib governorate between 2011 and 2021, during the ongoing conflict. It shows civilians’ importance as frequently autonomous governance providers in armed group-controlled areas and introduces the concept of ‘governance under insurgency’, encompassing governance provided by armed groups as well as alternative governance providers (AGPs) in armed group-controlled areas. Bringing together insights from the literatures on rebel governance and governance in areas of limited statehood, the thesis contributes to theory-building on governance in armed group-controlled areas by establishing a typology and analytical framework to explain variation in relations between armed groups and AGPs. The typology distinguishes different degrees of AGP autonomy from armed groups. It also distinguishes between governance forms making life predictable for civilians and those that do not. The typology encompasses five types of governance under insurgency (non-rebel, joint, contested, rebel-imposed or suppressed governance). The configuration of six explanatory conditions explains variation, including armed groups’ perception of AGPs as competitors, armed groups’ degree of military control, armed groups’ and AGPs’ governance capacity, AGPs’ ability to cooperate with armed groups and armed groups’ perception of the population as (non-)constituents.
The thesis is based on primary evidence collected during three rounds of fieldwork in Turkey and Jordan and remotely, primarily but not exclusively interviews. It analyses justice and law enforcement, healthcare, and bread provision in Greater Idlib. Comparing governance outcomes in these sectors over time shows that variation in the conjunction of the explanatory conditions explains governance outcomes and their evolution. It also demonstrates that AGPs can have significant agency in shaping governance outcomes, even against armed group preferences, and the importance of looking beyond governance by or on behalf of armed groups to capture the full scope of governance provision in contexts of insurgency. Additional probing cases test the analytical framework, examining governance in armed group-controlled Dar?a and northeast Syria, establishing the framework’s relevance beyond Idlib.
Johannes Rothe is a PhD candidate in the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the European University Institute. His academic interests include governance and service provision during armed conflict, especially rebel governance and humanitarian action, armed group behavior, particularly the behavior of Islamist and Jihadi groups, Syria, and politics in the Middle East. Based on his research, he has provided negotiation advice and training on engaging with armed groups to humanitarian actors working in northwest Syria and beyond. Prior to his PhD, he worked for a major international humanitarian organization in conflict zones for several years, mostly in the Middle East, including two missions in Syria. He holds a MPhil in Modern Middle Eastern Studies from the University of Oxford and a BA in Politics from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po Paris).