Up to one million Russians emigrated during 2022-2023 after the invasion of Ukraine, driven by dissent, fear of repression, or economic crisis. This exodus is considered the biggest brain drain from Russia since Soviet Union's collapse, and already in 2022 had consequences on economies and policies of hosting societies. This dissertation explores the dynamics of Russian migration following the Ukraine invasion, through three interconnected studies leveraging unique survey data from over 10,000 migrants across 100 countries, collected between March 2022 and April 2024. The research integrates insights from authoritarianism studies, political psychology, and migration studies, alongside advanced survey methodologies.
The first paper, co-authored with Emil Kamalov, develops a model describing interactions between autocrats, exile organizations, and migrants. Findings from conjoint experiments suggest that, despite potential risks from autocratic crackdowns, criminalized exile organizations attract migrant support mainly through perceived effectiveness and authenticity. However, cooperation declines when donations are traceable or when organisational transparency is lacking.
The second study examines the impact of nationality-based discrimination on migrants' integration decisions. Utilizing panel data and qualitative analysis, it confirms that discrimination signals non-acceptance by host communities, thereby discouraging integration. The response to discrimination varies: some migrants withdraw or relocate, while others reduce assimilation efforts, especially when residing in what they consider temporary host countries.
In the third paper, Kamalov and I revisit cumulative migration theories to understand how diaspora networks influence migration during crises. The study investigates which migrants are prioritized for assistance by their communities, applying the deservingness framework. Results indicate that political opposition and persecuted individuals, including ethnic minorities impacted by the war, are prioritized for support, highlighting a solidarity-driven selection process that transcends co-ethnic biases.
Ivetta Sergeeva specialises in comparative social science, with a focus on political behaviour, civil society, and migration. In her research, she uses a mixed-method methodology with a focus on surveys, statistical modeling, experiments, and interviews. Apart from research skills, she has eight years of experience supervising projects in civil society and human rights organizations in the challenging environment of contemporary Russia.
In collaboration with Emil Kamalov, she has co-founded and co-lead two research projects:
- OutRush, a panel survey of Russian emigrants, initiated as both a personal and professional reaction to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- Violence Monitor, a national survey on intimate partner violence in Russia that integrates UN methodology with experimental techniques.
Her work has been featured in Bloomberg, Financial Times, Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, BBC, CNBC, Fortune, Carnegie Politika.