Breaking the silence: explaining Poland’s desire to join NATO nuclear sharing

Organised by

• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
• EGPP: European Governance and Politics Programme

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Polish policymakers publicly advocated for the country’s inclusion in NATO’s nuclear-sharing programme. This article examines why Warsaw chose to depart from its long-standing tradition of avoiding the issue, given the controversy surrounding the potential deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland, concerns among allies, and the risk of escalating tensions with Russia.

Drawing on John Kingdon’s multiple-streams approach, the study identifies a convergence of external and internal factors that drove Poland’s policy shift. Among external factors, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and its announcement of nuclear weapon deployment in Belarus were decisive. Internally, a shift in public and elite attitudes towards greater support for NATO nuclear-sharing played a crucial role. The article also explores the United States’ reluctance to endorse Poland’s proposal, situating the Polish case within the broader debate on NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture.