In 2024, Poland celebrates 20 years of European Union membership. Despite the country's commitment to joining the euro area outlined in the Athens accession Treaty (ratified in a 2003 referendum), public discourse on this matter has been muted since 2015.
In their latest report, Agnieszka Smolenska and Pawel Tokarski show how geopolitical and economic developments make it imperative to restart the euro debate in Poland. They argue that articulating a clear mid- and long-term path to euro area membership could assist the nation in addressing significant challenges: institutional renewal following almost a decade of rule of law backsliding, accelerating the sustainability transition, and giving a new dimension to Poland’s security toolbox.
During this event, Smolenska and Tokarski will develop this argument by explaining how the transformation of the EMU, Poland-euro area relations and internal developments within Poland itself alter the cost-benefit analysis of euro adoption. Furthermore, they will address the question of whether Poland’s accession to the euro area is beneficial for the nation, examining economic, political, social, and rule-of-law considerations, as well as the evolving security landscape.
To delineate the best possible route towards EMU, the authors will consider lessons to be drawn from four idealised integration scenarios of nations prospering, stagnating, or remaining outside the euro area. In the final sections of the report, Smolenska and Tokarski propose recommendations for a multi-year reform programme oriented towards adopting the euro in Poland. While the analysis primarily focuses on Poland, the argument developed applies to other countries in the region as well.
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The Economic and Monetary Union Laboratory (EMU Lab) is a collaborative initiative driven by the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Chair and the Pierre Werner Chair, aiming to reassess the Economic and Monetary Union's structure in light of current European and global economic conditions.