Do preexistent oligarchic cleavages shape liberalisation and democratisation?

Organised by

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

Authoritarian political regimes do not surge in a vacuum but in an intricate system of preexisting structures that are often integrated into the new regime. When political competition reemerges, old cleavages reappear influencing electoral outcomes during liberalisation and the prospects for democratisation. Using new panel data from the entire universe of Brazilian politicians occupying a federal or state position from 1945 to 2023, this article shows that the strength of preexisting regional elites and their preexisting levels of cooperation during the previous regime shaped the maintenance of authoritarian elites during the Brazilian military dictatorship. Through a difference-in-difference design and other alternative specifications, this paper shows that the 1974 liberalisation barely changed the election of authoritarian elites in regions in which the regional oligarchic party before the 1965 dictatorship had been strong. New archival data on the entire professional trajectory of all the politicians who voted in 1984 and 1985 for Brazilian democratisation shows that authoritarian elites from regions with strong preexisting oligarchic elites were more likely to act strategically, defect to another party, and remain in an influential political position after democratisation.

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