Days after the 2024 US presidential election, on 11 November 2024, the Robert Schuman Centre hosted a roundtable assessing Donald Trump’s decisive win. The discussion, moderated by Veronica Anghel and featuring experts including Erik Jones, Liesbet Hooghe, Desmond King, Hilary Appel, and Jon Shields was attended by more than 130 participants. In a lively exchange, the speakers explored shifts in voter behaviour, the social and economic drivers of each campaign, and the potential impact on US-EU relations, each contributing insights from their research on the topic.
Liesbet Hooghe, Professor at the Schuman Centre, presented data on the key social divides within the Republican base. She observed that Trump’s coalition had grown across “most demographic groups”, particularly among non-college-educated men and white voters. She highlighted an “ethnic dealignment”, noting shifts in Latino support away from the Democratic Party.
Jon Shields, Professor at Claremont McKenna College, and Desmond King, Visiting Fellow at the Schuman Centre and Professor at Oxford University, further analysed the demographics of Trump’s supporters, focusing on the influence of economic and cultural factors. Shields highlighted Trump’s increased support across nearly all voter groups compared to his previous presidency, explaining that Trump’s movement resonates strongly with working-class voters “outside of the professional managerial class”.
On foreign policy, Hilary Appel, Professor at Claremont McKenna College, reflected on US-Russia relations, noting that “Trump’s plans for Ukraine remain unpredictable”. She explained that Trump’s stance on NATO and alliances could “present significant challenges” to Europe’s approach to security.
Finally, Erik Jones, Director of the Robert Schuman Centre, assessed potential challenges for US-EU relations as the new administration redefines priorities in areas such as the NATO alliance and trade, potentially reshaping transatlantic cooperation in the coming years. “Europe is on the wrong side in the mind of the Republican party with regards to the elite versus the people competition,” he said sourcing his insights from documents written by the Republican party and people around Donald Trump. He stressed the fact that it is important to read the materials they produce “because trying to distill their world view from the media that we traditionally consume is probably not going to be the best way to understand where this administration is headed,”
This discussion, the first of more to come, offered an exchange of insights on the shifting landscape of American politics and its global implications. Over thirty people attended in person, with more than a hundred joining online—underscoring the keen interest in the future trajectory of EU-US relations and the broader impact of the 2024 US election.
The full recording of the event is available here.